Current community forecast
Yes 91.9%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMay 20, 25, 8:13 AM UTCMar 19, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election?
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PolymarketRules
This question concerns the potential candidacy of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right party Rassemblement National (RN), in the upcoming 2027 presidential race in France.
- Marine Le Pen has announced her intention to run in 2027, aiming for the presidency for the fourth time.
- However, her ability to stand as a candidate is currently uncertain due to a recent legal conviction that includes a five-year ban on holding political office, linked to a case of misappropriation of European Parliament funds.
- She has appealed this ruling, with the appeal trial expected in early 2026.
- If the appeal fails, Marine Le Pen will be ineligible to run, and the RN’s current president, Jordan Bardella, has already positioned himself as a potential substitute candidate, with the party preparing for this contingency.
- Polls suggest Bardella might even perform as well or better than Le Pen in the election.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election? resolve?
- Will Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election? is scheduled to resolve on March 19, 2027.
- How is Will Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question concerns the potential candidacy of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right party Rassemblement National (RN), in the upcoming 2027 presidential race in France.