Data quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 8, 2026, 11:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
October 31 4%+0.5pt
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$8.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
Comments
0
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jul 7, 26, 11:26 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Marine Le Pen wins the French election in 2027?
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PolymarketWill Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?
Manifold MarketsMarine Le Pen Will be the next president of France.
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen’s departure as Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The departure will be considered to be announced when Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly of France, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Le Pen has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais.
- Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position.
- Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
- Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).