Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastGets nothing 89.4%
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJan 17, 26, 7:28 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
On January 15, 2026, Maria Machando gave her Nobel prize to Donald Trump.
- Will Trump give her absolutely nothing in exchange?
- What counts as "something": An endorsement from Trump, political/military/media action intended to advance Machado's political career, any political favor done at her request, any gift valued over $50,000.
- Endorsements must make mention of her political career.
- Merely stating "She's a lovely woman, she recognized I deserve the peace prize" does NOT count.
- Saying "She won the popular vote" or "they rigged the election against her like they did to me" would count.
