Will the first AGI be an LLM that emulates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the first AGI be an LLM that emulates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research??

Manifold Markets prices No at 74.3% as of October 29, 2026.

When does Will the first AGI be an LLM that emulates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research? resolve?

Will the first AGI be an LLM that emulates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

How is Will the first AGI be an LLM that emulates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves if and when we have a language model that generates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research in any field and is also an agent.

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POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+0.3pt98%
• Anthropic-1.3pt1%
• OpenAI-0.1pt1%

+18 more outcomes

Total Vol

$4.1M

24h Vol

$238.8K

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini+5.8pt53.4%
• Claude-11.7pt32.3%
• ChatGPT+0.6pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+2.5pt23%
• 202817%
• 2027-1.5pt8%

Total Vol

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-7.5pt30.9%
• $2.0–$2.25T+1.0pt22.7%
• $1.5–$1.75T+3.0pt18.6%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google+5.5pt57.7%
• Anthropic-8.5pt34%
• OpenAI6.2%

+12 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+7.0pt27%
• 2028+9.5pt26%
• 2027+4.0pt12%

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• Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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