Will Marco Rubio be the United States Secretary of State on 12/31/2026?
One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsElection2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 92%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 10, 26, 7:44 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Marco Rubio is serving as the 72nd United States Secretary of State on December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be verified through official U.S. State Department records or announcements from the White House or Congress regarding any change in the Secretary of State position.
- The market resolves NO if Rubio has resigned, been removed, or otherwise ceased serving in this role before the end date.
- Rubio was confirmed unanimously by the U.S. Senate and took office on January 21, 2025.
- On May 1, 2025, Trump announced that Rubio would become acting national security advisor, replacing Mike Waltz, while continuing to serve as secretary of state.
