Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57.5%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 12:04 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Scott Bessent leave the position of Secretary of Treasury by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Doug Burgum leave the position of Secretary of the Interior by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Jared Isaacman leave the position of NASA Administrator by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat countries will Marco Rubio visit in 2026?
KalshiWhen will Marco Rubio announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiWill Marco Rubio win the Republican Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $805.6K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt44.1%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.1K
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Marco Rubio leave the position of Secretary of State by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 58% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Marco Rubio leave the position of Secretary of State by the end of 2027? resolve?
- Will Marco Rubio leave the position of Secretary of State by the end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.