Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 4:22 PM UTCJun 2, 28, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Currently, Donald Trump is considered to be most likely to be the Republican nominee for president.
- Will his vice president be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? Being vice president is often seen as a stepping stone for becoming president (for example, Bush after Reagan and Biden after Obama).
- In addition, if the president dies, they become the new incumbent.
- On the other hand, Pence was Trump's vice president during his first term, and that seems to have hurt his chances in the 2024 race.
- If Trump does not have a vice presidential pick (for example, if he does not win the nomination), this resolves N/A. If he has multiple vice presidents for any reason, the one that is inaugurated at the same time with him in 2025 will be the one that this market refers to.
- If he runs as a non-Republican, this market will refer to whatever party he ran as.
