Will James Talarico win Starr County in the 2026 Texas Senate election?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 86.3%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 23, 26, 8:07 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will James Talarico win Starr County by 7.000% or more in the 2026 Texas Senate election?
Manifold MarketsWill James Talarico win Tarrant County by 7.000% or more in the 2026 Texas Senate election?
Manifold MarketsIf James Talarico is the Democratic nominee, will he win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill James Talarico win the Texas general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWill Jasmine Crockett campaign for James Talarico?
KalshiTexas Senate Election Winner
PolymarketRules
In 2016 Hillary won Starr county by 60%
- Biden won it by 5% in 2020
- Trump won it by 16%
- The county has had the largest shift to the right of any county in America since 2012.
- It had the longest Democratic streak of ANY county in America, voting for dems in every election from 1896 to 2020.
- It was Michael Dukakis(1988, 84.74%) and bill clinton (1996, 86.94%) highest percent of the vote share in any county un the country, and there’s over 3000 counties!
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will James Talarico win Starr County in the 2026 Texas Senate election??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will James Talarico win Starr County in the 2026 Texas Senate election? resolve?
- Will James Talarico win Starr County in the 2026 Texas Senate election? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Will James Talarico win Starr County in the 2026 Texas Senate election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In 2016 Hillary won Starr county by 60%