Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 2:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 81%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 24, 24, 1:11 AM UTCJan 2, 00, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Israel still exist at the beginning of 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)
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Manifold MarketsWill Wikipedia still exist in 2100?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketRules
Resolves NO if at any point between now and 2100 Israel doesn't exist.
- Successor states count.
- I will resolve NO if it loses more than 50% of its Jewish population to emigration or expulsion within a 10-year window, e.g. if it's invaded by a neighboring country and left officially intact, but is no longer serving its intended purpose.
