Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 81%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleFeb 24, 24, 1:11 AM UTCJan 2, 00, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Israel still exist at the beginning of 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)
Manifold MarketsWill Alphabet Inc. (Google) or Microsoft or Apple will still exist by 2100
Manifold MarketsIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRules
Resolves NO if at any point between now and 2100 Israel doesn't exist.
- Successor states count.
- I will resolve NO if it loses more than 50% of its Jewish population to emigration or expulsion within a 10-year window, e.g. if it's invaded by a neighboring country and left officially intact, but is no longer serving its intended purpose.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26.9M
- 24h Vol
- $363.4K
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8.1M
- 24h Vol
- $178.2K
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Israel still exist in 2100??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Israel still exist in 2100? resolve?
- Will Israel still exist in 2100? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2100.
- How is Will Israel still exist in 2100? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves NO if at any point between now and 2100 Israel doesn't exist.