Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 74.2%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 17, 25, 7:02 AM UTCJan 1, 00, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Wikipedia_will_exist_in_the_far_future
- If it only exists in an archival form, historical museum exhibit, or similar, this resolves NO.
- In order to resolve YES it must exist in something like its present function, of being an active information resource.
- This is very subjective, don't bet if you don't trust my judgement.
- Update 2025-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * A major split (with controversy over the real Wikipedia) could resolve YES, but not if it splits too many times.
- If only a relatively small group is allowed to edit Wikipedia (even if it's online and updated), this market will resolve NO.
