What are the current odds for Will humanity still exist in 2100??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 92.1% as of October 23, 2026.

When does Will humanity still exist in 2100? resolve?

Will humanity still exist in 2100? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 92.1%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 12 hours ago

Stale

Jul 2, 23, 10:54 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 5:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

"Humanity" means any member of the species homo sapiens, even the word comes to be used in a broader way in the future.

So a genetically modified or artificially created person would count as long as the modifications aren't so large that they make the person a completely different species, and a cyborg would also count as long as they are still biologically human.
However, an uploaded human mind would not count, nor would any other form of AI or robotics.