Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 73.5%
Forecasters
75
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Jun 23, 25, 3:29 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2030, there is credible reporting from reputable news organizations confirming that Iran has successfully sunk a U.S. Navy ship with a displacement of more than 2000 tons.
- The term "sunk" is defined as causing a U.S. Navy vessel to become submerged and inoperable due to hostile actions attributed to Iran.
- This includes submarines that are sunk.
- If no such incident is reported by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
- Iran has developed a range of naval capabilities aimed at countering U.S. naval presence in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.5pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+6.5pt66%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $567K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt84.2%
- Yes-4.5pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $11.2M
- 24h Vol
- $274.9K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt76%
- New People (NL)-1.4pt20%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.8pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65.3M
- 24h Vol
- $221.4K
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 74% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030? resolve?
- Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria