Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81%
Forecasters
92
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 30, 24, 9:55 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will California, or any part of California, become an independent country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Greenland become independent in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill any portion of Greenland become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExRules
Resolves YES if Greenland becomes officially independent from Denmark before 2030.
- Resolves on independence actually coming into effect, not just on announcements or votes.
- "Official" means "according to both Greenland and Danish governments".
- If Greenland declares independence unilaterally, it will only count if and after Denmark acknowledges and makes it official from their end too.
- Greenland becoming a part of another country other than Denmark will also count.
