Will California, or any part of California, become an independent country before 2030?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will California, or any part of California, become an independent country before 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 96.9% as of October 29, 2026.

When does Will California, or any part of California, become an independent country before 2030? resolve?

Will California, or any part of California, become an independent country before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.

How is Will California, or any part of California, become an independent country before 2030? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as expected

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POLYMARKET

Which party will win the House in 2026?

• Democratic Party93%
• Republican Party-0.5pt7%

Total Vol

$28.7M

24h Vol

$4M

KALSHI

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

• Democrats sweep+3.0pt65.5%
• D-House, R-Senate28.5%
• Republicans sweep-0.5pt

KALSHI

Texas Senate winner?

• James Talarico+1.0pt68.5%
• Ken Paxton-2.0pt31.5%

Total Vol

$50.5M

24h Vol

$3.2M

POLYMARKET

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

• Democrats Sweep65.7%
• R Senate, D26.5%
• Republicans Sweep-1.0pt6.9%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

KALSHI

Who will control the House?

• Democratic Party+0.4pt91.3%
• Republican Party-0.2pt8.8%

Total Vol

$80.3M

24h Vol

$3M

POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in December?

• 25 bps increase-3.0pt76.2%
• No change+4.0pt21.8%
• 50+ bps increase-0.6pt2%

+2 more outcomes

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