Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJune 30 2026 97.9%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleFeb 14, 26, 10:50 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Gavin Newsom is the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028, who will be the Vice Presidential nominee?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Hasan Piker Interview Gavin Newsom in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if Gavin Newsom has the highest % for that date on Polymarket.
- On that date at 3am EST I will check Polymarkets 2028 dem nominee market.https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
- I will use the % displayed.
- If equal with another person, I’ll use the exact yes or no bid prices to decide.
- If still equal, I’ll resolve 50/50.
- If I suspect that is incorrect or something has been manipulated I’ll use the yes and no prices or Kalshi.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Gavin Newsom lead the 2028 Dem Nominee betting on??
- Manifold Markets prices June 30 2026 at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Gavin Newsom lead the 2028 Dem Nominee betting on? resolve?
- Will Gavin Newsom lead the 2028 Dem Nominee betting on? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will Gavin Newsom lead the 2028 Dem Nominee betting on? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Gavin Newsom has the highest % for that date on Polymarket.