Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJune 30 2026 100%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleFeb 14, 26, 10:50 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Gavin Newsom is the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028, who will be the Vice Presidential nominee?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiWill Gavin Newsom win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketWho will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if Gavin Newsom has the highest % for that date on Polymarket.
- On that date at 3am EST I will check Polymarkets 2028 dem nominee market.https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
- I will use the % displayed.
- If equal with another person, I’ll use the exact yes or no bid prices to decide.
- If still equal, I’ll resolve 50/50.
- If I suspect that is incorrect or something has been manipulated I’ll use the yes and no prices or Kalshi.