Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 55.5%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 29, 25, 9:03 PM UTCMar 1, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Gavin Newsom is the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028, who will be the Vice Presidential nominee?
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KalshiGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRules
The resolution is based on my subjective assessment of his public statements, and I will not trade in this market.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, in my judgment, Newsom uses strongly anti-AI rhetoric in public remarks on social media or in speeches and debates before March 2, 2028. "Strongly anti-AI" means rhetoric that goes substantially beyond his current position of supporting responsible AI development—such as calling for major restrictions on AI development, characterizing AI as primarily a threat rather than an opportunity, or advocating for policies that would significantly constrain the AI industry.
- Casual criticism of specific AI applications or calls for narrow guardrails would not qualify, and the positions he takes must be consistent throughout multiple remarks (an offhand comment once wouldn't count).
- Newsom stated in October 2025 that after the 2026 midterm elections, he would give "serious thought" to running in 2028. 55% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents say they'd consider voting for Newsom in a 2028 Democratic primary, making him a leading contender.
- Newsom's current AI stance emphasizes responsible development rather than opposition.