Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 91.6%
Forecasters
96
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleDec 27, 22, 4:01 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich celebrities/public figures will serve prison time as a result of evidence from either Epstein or Diddy files?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk serve any prison sentence before November 2032?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump to serve as president for 9+ years by end of 2030
SmarketsTrump To Serve Second Term In Full
SmarketsTrump to serve his full term?
FutuurRules
Resolves YES if Donald Trump spends any positive amount of time in prison while serving a sentence.
- It doesn't count if he is held while awaiting trial or sentencing.
- House arrest also doesn't count, it must be an official prison.
- However, it DOES count if he is held in prison awaiting execution or similar.
- Resolves NO if the above hasn't happened before 1 Jan 2030, 0000hrs UTC.
Open markets
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $805.6K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt44.1%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.1K
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? resolve?
- Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Donald Trump spends any positive amount of time in prison while serving a sentence.