Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2026?
One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsCrime & Justice2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 98.7%
Forecasters
50
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJun 10, 23, 8:52 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if Donald Trump spends any positive amount of time in prison while serving a sentence before the end of 2026.
- It doesn't count if he is held while awaiting trial or sentencing.
- House arrest also doesn't count, it must be an official prison.
- However, it DOES count if he is held in prison awaiting execution or similar.
- Resolves NO otherwise
