Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 29, 2026, 5:24 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastNo 97.3%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 30 days ago
StaleNov 6, 24, 6:57 PMJan 22, 29, 7:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes3%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall92% match · verified | Medium | 82% | — | $1.1K | $101.8K | 20 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 97% | — | — | — | 30 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Will Trump resign during his term?
1.0 pts2y
82%
-1.0pt18%
73 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$301.7K
24h Vol$1.1K
KALSHIRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.