Will Donald Trump be impeached at least once during his second term?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65.4%
Forecasters
41
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleFeb 8, 25, 12:55 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many articles will Trump be impeached on in his second term?
KalshiHow many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?
KalshiWill Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump be impeached in his second term?
FutuurWill Donald Trump be impeached by the House of Representatives during his second term?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump be impeached again during his second term?
Manifold MarketsRules
Donald Trump was previously impeached twice during his first term (2017-2021) - first for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, and second for incitement of insurrection.
- Both times he was acquitted by the Senate.
- Impeachment requires a simple majority vote in the House of Representatives, while conviction and removal from office requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if:
- The House of Representatives passes at least one article of impeachment against Donald Trump during his second presidential term (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029)
