Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.9%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 10, 23, 2:48 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if there is credible evidence that the PRC has deployed ground troops on Burmese territory.
- It could be with or without the permission of the junta or rebel forces.
- The only qualification is that military drills and exercises do not count, nor would small ceremonial attachments for, say, a state funeral.
- There is no requirement for Chinese forces to engage in combat.
- I will adjudicate this market and will not bet in it.
- The weight of evidence should be such that a reasonable person seems it more likely than not that China has deployed troops.
