Will California Proposition 38 ($8.4B immunology research bond) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
PoliticsOne-OffBonds & TreasuriesHealth & MedicineElection22dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50%
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3
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Oct 6, 26, 6:34 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if California Proposition 38 (Authorizes Bonds for Immunology Medical Research.
- Initiative Statute.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:
- Simple majority of votes cast on the measure (Cal.
- II §10(a); art.
- XVIII §4 for amendments).
- If conflicting measures both pass, the one with more yes votes prevails (art.