What are the current odds for Will BAAJA become law??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 57.1% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will BAAJA become law? resolve?

Will BAAJA become law? is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2027.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

Yes 57.1%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Oct 1, 26, 10:06 PM UTCJan 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

There's a new permitting reform bill called "Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act" aka BAAJA.

If it becomes law (eg passed by senate and house and signed into law by the president) either before the 2026 midterms or during the lame duck session, then this resolves as Yes.
If it or a similar bill doesn't get enacted until after the next congress is sworn in in January 2027, that is too late and counts as No. If there are trivial amendments but substantially this bill becomes law, that will still be Yes.
If there are significant amendments I reserve the right to resolve it at 50% or some partial number.
The name doesn't have to be this exact name.