Will any US Senate election in 2026 have a winning margin of 1.000% or less?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 63.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleSep 7, 26, 1:20 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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GeminiRules
Resolves yes if any us senate election in 2026 has a winning margin of 1.000% or less.
- If a senate goes to a runoff (eg.
- Georgia) resolves based on runoff only.
- First round ignored.
- In Alaska and Maine with ranked choice voting, resolves yes if the final round margin is 1.000% or less.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any US Senate election in 2026 have a winning margin of 1.000% or less??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 64% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will any US Senate election in 2026 have a winning margin of 1.000% or less? resolve?
- Will any US Senate election in 2026 have a winning margin of 1.000% or less? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will any US Senate election in 2026 have a winning margin of 1.000% or less? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if any us senate election in 2026 has a winning margin of 1.000% or less.