Current community forecast
No 84.3%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleDec 23, 25, 10:08 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Consistently = enough that Politico's Poll of Polls UK (smooth view) shows any party polling at greater than or equal to 35%, for 14 days in a row, according to the day-by-day hover tool.
- Excepting any obvious data / charting errors on Politico's end.
- All 14 days must fall within 2025 I.e. the streak cannot start on Dec 31st 2025.
- Politico do take time to update their charts, so any 14 day period must remain in place for 14 days after it completes.
- If for any reason Politico's Poll of Polls ceases to function then the backup metric is Wikipedia's UK Polling chart.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2026? resolve?
- Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Consistently = enough that Politico's Poll of Polls UK (smooth view) shows any party polling at greater than or equal to 35%, for 14 days in a row, according to the day-by-day hover tool.