Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?
EconomyOne-OffUS Politics21dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98.8%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMar 24, 26, 9:35 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves to YES if an ICE officer discharges a firearm at a person within a U.S. commercial airport and the act fails the "Justified" criteria based on the best available evidence.
- If no shooting occurs by the end of the current government shutdown over DHS funding, or if the shooting is objectively justified, this market resolves to NO.
- "Justified" Criteria (Resolves NO)
- A shooting is JUSTIFIED if any of the following physical facts are confirmed by video, forensics, official reports, or widely corroborated mainstream reports:
- Brandishing: The subject was brandished a firearm (or realistic replica), explosive, or bladed weapon.
- Detected Weapon + Threat: A weapon was known to be present (e.g., via scanner/search) AND the subject was aggressively non-compliant or making a move to retrieve it.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends? resolve?
- Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves to YES if an ICE officer discharges a firearm at a person within a U.S. commercial airport and the act fails the "Justified" criteria based on the best available evidence.