Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.6%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJan 8, 26, 8:51 PM UTCSep 18, 28, 7:50 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
People are divided over whether the footage shows him actually being impacted by her car, or only nearly impacted.
- Resolves YES on confirmation from a reliable source that he was injured, NO on confirmation from a reliable source that he was not.
- Since "reliable source" may be subjective, I will not bet on this market.
- Update 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of "injured": A scrape or bruise from vehicle impact would be sufficient for YES resolution.
- However, the market will resolve NO if very clear reliable sources confirm he was not injured, even if there's speculation about unreported minor injuries.