Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleSep 19, 23, 3:06 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030
Manifold MarketsWill KIA-led forces have captured Katha by September 30, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRules
It should be mostly undamaged.
- Either captured, or taken after forced landing, or similar.
- Something like the Hainan incident would count. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident
- Even if the pilot has a chance to manually destroy sensitive aspects of the plane before being taken, as long as the exterior is mostly intact it would count.
- Even a crash which the pilot walks away from would likely result in a plane in good enough condition to count.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2027?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2027 resolve?
- Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2027 is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2027 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: It should be mostly undamaged.