Current community forecast
No 67.4%
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27
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJun 6, 23, 10:21 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
A debate on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, NBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX that features an all AI system (no human hybrid) that in a timely manner paraphrases and assigns truth judgments (it can be of any type/scale) to (a number of) claims (made by candidates in a presidential primary or presidential general election) that are overlayed on the screen will resolve to Yes; the AI must necessarily make a certain number of truth judgments for it to resolve Yes (at least 10 total for the entire debate); the AI's paraphrasing and judgments need not be judged correct or accurate by humans ( it just has to show it tried so even a confabulation/hallucination would be counted ); the AI judgments must be part of the broadcast production televised stream to count (if the AI fact checking is offered only through a particular streaming service app or device it is not counted - in other words everyone able to, must see it).
- If truth judgments are displayed more than 30s after the candidate finishes the respective claim, then that jugment is not considered timely and not counted towards the total.
- To repeat, if the truth claims are made available as optional, opt-out/opt-in or as a separate device or app that is not counted.
- I am using the following definition to satisfy what is a truth judgment: "Truth judgments reflect inferences drawn from three types of information: base rates, feelings, and consistency with information retrieved from memory." (https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-psych-010419-050807)
