Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 96%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 26, 23, 4:16 AM UTCJan 1, 00, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?
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PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
Will extraterrestrials destroy the human race? Only counts alien species that originate from another planet, not life whose ancestry can be ultimately traced back to Earth.
- Resolves NO if humanity is still around by then.
- Otherwise, the resolution is up to the aliens.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
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- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
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- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
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- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an alien invasion wipe out humanity by 2100??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an alien invasion wipe out humanity by 2100? resolve?
- Will an alien invasion wipe out humanity by 2100? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.
- How is Will an alien invasion wipe out humanity by 2100? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will extraterrestrials destroy the human race? Only counts alien species that originate from another planet, not life whose ancestry can be ultimately traced back to Earth.