Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 57%
No 57%Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 58 minutes ago
LaggingJan 7, 25, 12:27 AM UTCJan 1, 45, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria:
- The question will resolve to YES if at least one of the following occurs:
- The broader unemployment rate (U-6) reaches 50% or higher
- The labor force participation rate drops by 50% or more from its 2024 baseline of 62.5%.
- In this context the LFPR should fall to 31.3% or lower.
- This question is concerned with lost jobs and not the number of hours worked per week.
