Will Adriano Espaillat run in the 2026 NY13 general election as an independent or third party candidate?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (97.3%)
Resolved: Oct 10, 2026, 3:03 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 10, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Musk-backed third-party candidate(s) win any seats in Congress by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2026 ny13 general election?
Manifold MarketsWill a court invalidate or enjoin Nikki Lucas's election as Brooklyn Dem chair?
KalshiWill Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland as an independent state in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill I get paid from a side gig as an independent contractor.
Manifold MarketsWill any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Adriano Espaillat appears on the official general election ballot for New York's 13th Congressional District in November 2026 under any party line other than Democratic or Republican (such as the Working Families Party, Conservative Party, or an independent ballot line).
- It will also resolve to YES if he formally registers as an active write-in candidate with the Board of Elections for the general election.
- This market will resolve to NO if he does not appear on the general election ballot under a non-major party line, does not file to run as an active write-in candidate, or withdraws from the race entirely.
- The primary source of truth for this market will be the official candidate lists and certified election results published by the New York State Board of Elections and the Board of Elections in the City of New York.
- In the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary, five-term incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat was defeated by progressive challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier.
