Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?
One-OffAI3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.4%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Nov 15, 23, 10:06 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:30 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
This market is quite similar to the following market.
- However, instead of focusing on the papers, it focuses a bit more on the practicality aspect by considering a mixture of the most commonly used models and the SOTA models at the end of 2026.
- I am including both Adam and close variants (e.g. AdamW).
- I will sample a mixture of open source best models in 2026.
- Not participating in this market in case judgement is required.
- If training details are not provided, can reach out to the creators of the models, if they decline, we move on and pick the next best thing
Open markets
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $73.6K
- 24h Vol
- $73.6K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-6.0pt81%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.3pt68.3%
- ChatGPT+0.2pt16.4%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.4pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31.6K
- 24h Vol
- $31.6K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 68% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market is quite similar to the following market.