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Data as of Sep 15, 2026, 11:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Kimi 0%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
26 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownSpread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 11, 26, 4:00 PM UTCSep 18, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Open Source market share on Sep 14th
KalshiOpen Source market share on Sep 16th
KalshiUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
Manifold MarketsWill open-source AI win? (through 2028)
Manifold MarketsWill it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Kimi is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Sep 18, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Artificial Analysis - Open Source
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If GLM is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Sep 18, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.9pt15.8%
- Gemini-0.3pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11M
- 24h Vol
- $78.5K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 72.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.5pt85%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,80%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude90.6%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT0.9%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.3K
- 24h Vol
- $25.3K
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- SpaceXAI47%
- Google45%
- Microsoft41%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $24.4K
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Top Open Source AI this week?
- Kalshi prices Kimi at 0% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Top Open Source AI this week resolve?
- Top Open Source AI this week is scheduled to resolve on September 18, 2026.
- How is Top Open Source AI this week settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Kimi is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Sep 18, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.