KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Sep 15, 2026, 11:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Above 55% 0%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
26 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 11, 26, 5:00 PM UTCSep 17, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Open Source market share on Sep 14th
KalshiTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
Manifold MarketsWill open-source AI win? (through 2028)
Manifold MarketsRules
If the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Sep 16, 2026 is above 55%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards
- This event resolves using the Open Weights percentage in Vercel AI Gateway's Open vs. Closed Token Volume chart.
- At 10:00 AM ET on Sep 17, 2026, Kalshi will use the chart's updated value for Sep 16, 2026.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with Vercel.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Sep 16, 2026 is above 57.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
CryptoPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+11.5pt81.2%
- Yes-11.5pt18.8%
- Total Vol
- $17.4M
- 24h Vol
- $1.2M
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 15?
- 68,000+0.4pt100%
- 70,000+0.1pt100%
- 72,000+0.6pt100%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,750 or above99%
- $74,250 or above99%
- $73,000 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $626K
- 24h Vol
- $625.3K
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-19.0pt55%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-13.0pt47%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-29.0pt41%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 15, 2026 at 3am EDT?
- $77,100 or above99%
- $76,400 or above99%
- $76,900 or above99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $514.5K
- 24h Vol
- $458.8K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 18, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $70,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $65,000 or above98%
- $64,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $897.1K
- What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 14-20?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 15?
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 16?
- BTC 15 min · $77,395.24 target
- ETH price on Sep 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- What price will Ethereum hit September 14-20?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Open Source market share on Sep 16th?
- Kalshi prices Above 55% at 0% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Open Source market share on Sep 16th resolve?
- Open Source market share on Sep 16th is scheduled to resolve on September 17, 2026.
- How is Open Source market share on Sep 16th settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Sep 16, 2026 is above 55%, then the market resolves to Yes.