Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms9d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 72%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Aug 5, 26, 5:54 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Abdul El-Sayed is officially certified as the winner of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan.
- The market will resolve to NO if any other candidate (such as Republican nominee Mike Rogers or any third-party/write-in candidate) is certified as the winner, or if the election is won by anyone other than Abdul El-Sayed.
- Source of Truth:
- Resolution will be based on official results published by the Michigan Bureau of Elections / Secretary of State.
- If official certification is delayed, the market may resolve based on a consensus projection from major decision desks (e.g., Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, major networks), provided there are no active recounts or legal challenges that could plausibly alter the certified outcome.