Will Abdul El-Sayed win by a larger margin than James Talarico does?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection7dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 55.9%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Oct 26, 26, 7:38 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Abdul El-Sayed wins the November 3, 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election by a larger margin of victory (measured in percentage points of the total vote) than James Talarico wins the November 3, 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election.
- It will also resolve to YES if Abdul el Sayed loses by a smaller margin than Talarico does if both lose.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO, including if:
- James Talarico wins by a larger percentage-point margin than Abdul El-Sayed.
- Both candidates win by the exact same percentage-point margin.
