Current community forecast
No 82.6%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 6, 26, 4:10 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the 10th drop fall in the pitch drop experiment?
Manifold MarketsWill we know if gravity is fundamentally quantum by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, by the end of 2030, a peer-reviewed experimental paper is published demonstrating explicit reconstruction of a complex quantum tunneling trajectory using weak measurement techniques.
- Weak measurement combined with post-selection has been proposed as a method to identify complex classical trajectories that tunneling particles follow.
- See, e.g., Nishimura, Sakai & Yosprakob (2023) “A new picture of quantum tunneling in the real-time path integral from Lefschetz thimble calculations” https://doi.org/10.1007/JHEP09(2023)110
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a weak measurement experiment explicitly reconstruct a complex trajectory for quantum tunneling by EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a weak measurement experiment explicitly reconstruct a complex trajectory for quantum tunneling by EOY 2030? resolve?
- Will a weak measurement experiment explicitly reconstruct a complex trajectory for quantum tunneling by EOY 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will a weak measurement experiment explicitly reconstruct a complex trajectory for quantum tunneling by EOY 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria