Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2027-2028 63.6%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJun 23, 23, 9:32 PM UTCJan 2, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the 10th drop fall in the University of Queensland Pitch Drop Experiment?
Manifold MarketsWill a weak measurement experiment explicitly reconstruct a complex trajectory for quantum tunneling by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to the year when the 10th drop falls in the University of Queensland pitch drop experiment.
- Automatically resolves to "the named outcome" if the 10th drop hasn't fallen by 2031.
- Resolves N/A if the experiment stops before the next drop falls, the answer is unclear, or the experiment is tampered with in a way that affects the time of the drop to a non-negligible degree.
- Year start and end times are based on Queensland time.
- This market is only about the official University of Queensland pitch drop experiment, originally started by Professor Thomas Parnell in 1927.
- More info on the pitch drop experiment, including when previous drops occurred, can be found here.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the 10th drop fall in the pitch drop experiment??
- Manifold Markets prices 2027-2028 at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will the 10th drop fall in the pitch drop experiment? resolve?
- When will the 10th drop fall in the pitch drop experiment? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2031.
- How is When will the 10th drop fall in the pitch drop experiment? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to the year when the 10th drop falls in the University of Queensland pitch drop experiment.