Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (97.8%)
Resolved: Oct 13, 2026, 1:12 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 12:32 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes2.2%
No97.8%
Won
Lost
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if any currently serving United States Senator dies between the creation of this market and October 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Currently serving U.S. Senator: An individual who is an active, sworn member of the United States Senate at the time of their death.
- Former senators, senators-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and members of the House of Representatives do not qualify.
- Timing of death: The death must be officially confirmed to have occurred before October 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.