Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71.5%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleMar 17, 23, 2:19 AM UTCJan 2, 40, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an AI model generate a major novel physics theory that is experimentally confirmed by the end of 2037?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many crewed orbital space launches will there be in 2028?
Manifold MarketsAt least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
The Standard Model of particle physics describes the fundamental particles and forces that make up the universe.
- It has been highly successful in predicting and explaining various phenomena in particle physics.
- However, there are still unresolved questions and limitations within the Standard Model, such as the nature of dark matter, the origin of neutrino masses, and the unification of forces.
- The discovery of new subatomic particles could potentially provide insights into these mysteries and extend our current understanding of particle physics.
- Will a new subatomic particle be experimentally confirmed to exist before January 1st, 2040?
- Resolution criteria: