Current community forecast
No 93.1%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleAug 23, 26, 2:07 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM UTC, a major pulsar timing array (PTA) collaboration—such as NANOGrav, EPTA, PPTA, InPTA, CPTA, or the overarching International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA)—publishes a peer-reviewed paper or releases an official announcement declaring the confirmed detection of cosmic strings (or cosmic superstrings).
- To qualify as a "detection" for a YES resolution:
- The publication or announcement must explicitly claim a discovery or detection of cosmic strings, rather than merely stating that they are "not ruled out," "consistent with" the data, or "highly constrained".
- The signal must be attributed to cosmic strings—either via a stochastic gravitational-wave background (SGWB) component definitively associated with cosmic string networks, or through individual gravitational-wave bursts (such as from cosmic string cusps or kinks).
- The statistical significance of the detection must meet the scientific collaboration's threshold for a formal claim of detection/discovery (typically a $5\sigma$ significance or a decisive Bayes factor over alternative hypotheses like supermassive black hole binaries) as stated in the official announcement.
Open markets
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- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
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+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030? resolve?
- Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria