Current community forecast
No 95.5%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 11, 26, 2:26 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 2:23 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill OMICmAge have a standard deviation lower than GrimAge2?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for A Pulsar Timing Detection of a Deviation from Kerr in Sgr A*?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does A Pulsar Timing Detection of a Deviation from Kerr in Sgr A* resolve?
- A Pulsar Timing Detection of a Deviation from Kerr in Sgr A* is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.