Current community forecast
@anglospherepoliticsguy 29.2%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+14.7 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 29, 26, 2:15 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
https://manifold.markets/topic/nz-election-26-challenge?tab=leaderboard
- BOTS cant win prizes!
- the PRIZE POOL: (total 5500 Mana)
- 1st: 3150 Mana
- 2nd: 1000 Mana
- 3rd: 500 Mana
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
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- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will win the 3150 mana prize for the 2026 NZ election challenge??
- Manifold Markets prices @anglospherepoliticsguy at 29% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will win the 3150 mana prize for the 2026 NZ election challenge? resolve?
- Who will win the 3150 mana prize for the 2026 NZ election challenge? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Who will win the 3150 mana prize for the 2026 NZ election challenge? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://manifold.markets/topic/nz-election-26-challenge?tab=leaderboard