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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Who will win the 2026 election for California's 16th State Senate district
Manifold Markets

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 16th State Senate district

PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Mike Boudreaux 2.6%
Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters

4

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Stale
Jul 2, 25, 3:26 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Mike Boudreaux3%

Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 election for California's 16th State Senate district.
  • The official results will be sourced from the California Secretary of State's website.
  • California's 16th State Senate district encompasses parts of Fresno, Kern, Kings, and Tulare counties.
  • The district has a history of competitive elections.
  • In the 2022 election, incumbent Democrat Melissa Hurtado narrowly defeated Republican David Shepard by a margin of 22 votes.

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Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 election for California's 16th State Senate district.
  • The official results will be sourced from the California Secretary of State's website.
  • California's 16th State Senate district encompasses parts of Fresno, Kern, Kings, and Tulare counties.
  • The district has a history of competitive elections.
  • In the 2022 election, incumbent Democrat Melissa Hurtado narrowly defeated Republican David Shepard by a margin of 22 votes.