Who will win the 2026 election for California's 51st State Assembly district
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastRick Zbur (Incumbent) 88.9%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleAug 25, 25, 3:04 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria
- Resolves to the option matching the candidate certified by the California Secretary of State as the winner of California State Assembly District 51 in the November 3, 2026 general election (after any recounts/court-ordered adjustments).
- Primary outcomes do not resolve this market.
- Verification: California SOS results portal and the final Statement of Vote; LA County Registrar results may be used as corroboration.
- Links: https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/ and https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results and https://results.lavote.gov/.
- (sos.ca.gov, sonomacounty.ca.gov)