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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Who will win the 2026 election for California's 51st State Assembly district
Manifold Markets

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 51st State Assembly district

PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Rick Zbur (Incumbent) 66.8%
Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters

1

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 8 days ago

Stale
Aug 25, 25, 3:04 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Rick Zbur (Incumbent)67%

Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves to the option matching the candidate certified by the California Secretary of State as the winner of California State Assembly District 51 in the November 3, 2026 general election (after any recounts/court-ordered adjustments).
  • Primary outcomes do not resolve this market.
  • Verification: California SOS results portal and the final Statement of Vote; LA County Registrar results may be used as corroboration.
  • Links: https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/ and https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results and https://results.lavote.gov/.
  • (sos.ca.gov, sonomacounty.ca.gov)

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Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves to the option matching the candidate certified by the California Secretary of State as the winner of California State Assembly District 51 in the November 3, 2026 general election (after any recounts/court-ordered adjustments).
  • Primary outcomes do not resolve this market.
  • Verification: California SOS results portal and the final Statement of Vote; LA County Registrar results may be used as corroboration.
  • Links: https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/ and https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results and https://results.lavote.gov/.
  • (sos.ca.gov, sonomacounty.ca.gov)