Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries?
6.5 pts (24h)Politics1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJ. D. Vance 83.2%+6.5ptLeader of 41 outcomes
Forecasters
129
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+6.5 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 24, 2:30 PM UTCAug 8, 28, 1:30 PM UTC
Trends
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ForecastExRules
An answer resolves YES if that person wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries.
- Otherwise the answer will resolve NO once all contests are over.
- The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
- Nominating contests in places which are not states will not count for the purposes of this market (e.g. Washington D.C., American Samoa, etc.).
- If there is a caucus in a state instead of a primary, or if there is more than one nominating contest (e.g. if there is a primary and a caucus) then nothing changes - the important factor is who wins the most delegates in that state.
