Current community forecast
Gavin Newsom 49.7%Leader of 52 outcomes
Forecasters
122
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 24, 1:59 PM UTCAug 8, 28, 1:30 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries?
Manifold MarketsWhich states will vote before Super Tuesday in the 2028 Democratic Party primaries?
Manifold MarketsHow old will the Democratic Party's Presidential Nominee for the 2028 US Presidental Election be?
Manifold MarketsWill at least half of the GOP and Democratic Party Presidential and VP nominees be women in 2028?
Manifold MarketsMongolian Democratic Party presidential nomination winner?
KalshiWhich party will win the 2032 Presidential Election?
KalshiRules
An answer resolves YES if that person wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries.
- Otherwise the answer will resolve NO once all contests are over.
- The source of the official delegate count will be the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the DNC's official statements.
- Nominating contests in places which are not states will not count for the purposes of this market (e.g. Washington D.C., American Samoa, etc.).
- If there is a caucus in a state instead of a primary, or if there is more than one nominating contest (e.g. if there is a primary and a caucus) then nothing changes - the important factor is who wins the most delegates in that state.
