Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastGavin Newsom 92.3%Leader of 43 outcomes
Forecasters
90
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleFeb 5, 25, 4:50 AM UTCNov 16, 28, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Pete Buttigieg run for president of the United States in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Donald Trump cease to be President of the United States?
Manifold MarketsWho will be voted President of the United States by the Electoral College in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Gavin Newsom be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Bernie Sanders run for President in 2028?
KalshiRules
Each option resolves YES when the respective candidate files a FEC Form 2 seeking the office of President, the formal statement of candidacy.
- (Informal statements by the candidate are irrelevant to resolution.)
- All other options resolve NO once all relevant deadlines have passed.
- Close date is provisional in that this market will likely resolve earlier than it once I identify all relevant deadlines.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will run for President of the United States in 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Gavin Newsom at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will run for President of the United States in 2028? resolve?
- Who will run for President of the United States in 2028? is scheduled to resolve on November 16, 2028.
- How is Who will run for President of the United States in 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Each option resolves YES when the respective candidate files a FEC Form 2 seeking the office of President, the formal statement of candidacy.