Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocrats 56%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
74
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+6.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 26, 4:24 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill the Republicans maintain a majority in the senate after the midterms
Manifold MarketsWhich party will control the Senate after the midterm elections?
SmarketsWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves based on which party controls the U.S. Senate following elections scheduled for November 3, 2026, when 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be contested.
- Control is determined by which party holds a majority of seats (51 or more).
- The Senate currently has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents who caucus with Democrats).
- Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win a majority, while Republicans can lose no more than two seats to retain control.
- Resolution will be based on official election results certified by state authorities and reported by major news outlets (AP, Reuters, etc.).
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.8%
- Gavin Newsom13.7%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $222.4M
- 24h Vol
- $814.6K
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome99%
- Barack Hussein Obama99%
- Cuba / Cuban99%
+34 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $671.2K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.3pt91.1%
- Republican Party-0.6pt8.9%
- Total Vol
- $34M
- 24h Vol
- $468.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt60%
- D-House, R-Senate30%
- Republicans sweep-0.6pt9%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $17.1M
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.8pt3%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- December-2.0pt19%
- October13%
- September 30,-0.8pt4%
- Total Vol
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms??
- Manifold Markets prices Democrats at 56% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Who will control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms? resolve?
- Who will control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Who will control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria
- Where else is Who will control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms? listed?
- The same question is also listed on PredictIt.