Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastRepublicans 55%+2.1ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
62
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 days ago
StaleJan 7, 26, 4:24 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Democrats45%
Compare venues· Republicans
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 55% | — | — | — | 11 days ago | |
 PredictIt84% match · verified | — | 60% | — | — | — | 20 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on PredictIt
Which party will control the Senate after the 2026 election?
1.0 pts6mo
-1.0pt60%
+2.0pt41%
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves based on which party controls the U.S.
- Senate following elections scheduled for November 3, 2026, when 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be contested.
- Control is determined by which party holds a majority of seats (51 or more).
- The Senate currently has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents who caucus with Democrats).
- Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win a majority, while Republicans can lose no more than two seats to retain control.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$21Jul 105d of dataJul 18
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Resolution criteria
- The market resolves based on which party controls the U.S.
- Senate following elections scheduled for November 3, 2026, when 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be contested.
- Control is determined by which party holds a majority of seats (51 or more).
- The Senate currently has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents who caucus with Democrats).
- Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win a majority, while Republicans can lose no more than two seats to retain control.